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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."